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In the first quarter, the top three US wireless carriers—AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile—generated $83B in combined revenue. Google earned $90B, and Meta earned $42B. Yet remarkably, only one of them explicitly mentioned messaging as a strategic priority.
The carriers are focused on post-paid subscriber growth—that is, consumers who sign up for monthly plans. There’s also some heat around Fixed Wireless Access (FWA), where they’re trying to win subscribers who’ve grown tired of cable’s monopoly on internet access. (If you want to dive deeper into this dynamic, read Captive Audience by Susan Crawford.) Notably, messaging only tangentially appeared during T-Mobile’s call, in the context of its new satellite offering, T-Satellite.
Google, meanwhile, remained laser-focused on AI and how AI can turbocharge search advertising—its cash cow. Only Mark Zuckerberg spoke explicitly about messaging, emphasizing WhatsApp repeatedly as a strategic priority. More on Mark’s remarks later.
We can use this earnings report to talk about a few things we in the messaging industry don’t always get right.
For Pete’s Sake, Don’t Escalate
First, messaging is not as high a priority for the carriers as we’d like it to be. Think about it: If it’s not top-of-mind for your boss, it’s not top-of-mind for you. This distinction is important because it shows the impedance mismatch between our industry and the carriers.
Carriers typically view messaging as a check-the-box feature. If it bubbles up to a senior leader’s radar, it’s either because it suddenly became new and shiny (satellite messaging) or because a regulator is using it to make their lives difficult (spam and robocalls). Outside of that, the best messaging can do is stay out of their way, allowing them to focus on subscriber growth and data usage.
This distinction is lost on many in the industry, especially the new entrants. Whenever they hit a blocker with the messaging teams at the carriers, their first instinct is to escalate. I’ve rarely seen this work.
Even if you’re best friends with the CEO—say you share a CEO-esque, cortisol-managing pastime (golf) with John Stankey—it’s rare that Stankey (as he’s known in the industry) would overrule his own team and do as you ask. (This is all hypothetical, by the way. I don’t know John Stankey or whether he plays golf.) The point is that CEOs in big organizations rarely have as much direct operational power as people think, and the good ones don’t wield it carelessly.
I’m not saying you should never escalate. What I am saying is that you should give empathy, kindness, gentleness, persuasion, and patience a chance. Understand why the carriers behave as they do, ensure you’ve done everything you can to get them to see your POV before you go complaining to their boss’s boss’s boss or to the regulator.
Opportunities to escalate are rare; they are self-evident situations where you have no other choice. You have tried everything to resolve the issue amicably. You’ve enlisted the help of friends. You’ve gotten on a plane to make your case in person. You’ve played hard until there’s nothing left in the uniform. If you still find your back to the wall with no way out? Then you escalate.
This lesson, unfortunately, continues to be lost among the Valley folks who think you “just” have to get the CEOs to talk to each other or go complain to the FCC, and everything will magically get solved. That too rarely happens.
Google Wants Your Clicks, Not Your Messages
Even though RCS or RBM didn’t get mentioned during Alphabet’s earnings call, you can rest assured that it remains a strategic priority.
Google Search Ads generated over $50 billion in Q1 alone. More than half of Google’s web search traffic is estimated to originate from mobile devices. In fact, Google pays Apple a hefty sum ($20 billion by some reports) to be iOS’s primary search engine. Given this reality, why wouldn’t Google do everything possible to ensure Android remains strong?
RCS will remove the stigma of the green bubble / blue bubble (early tests show it’s already happening). This will continue to make Android more dynamic, vibrant, and sticky, thus ensuring Google maintains end-to-end control of at least one critical source of search traffic. That’s why Alphabet’s omission of RCS in an earnings call doesn’t indicate that it isn’t a priority; rather, it’s a reflection of a company whose operations span wider than an Airbus A380. After all, in Q1 it earned more than the three wireless operators combined.
Meta’s Coming for Your Lunch
WhatsApp is the primary driver of business messaging growth within Meta’s “Family of Apps.” Categorized as “other revenue,” business messaging brought in $510M for the quarter, with WhatsApp being the largest contributor. In fact, the category that includes business messaging and payments grew 34% YoY.
Mark explicitly called business messaging Meta’s next key pillar of growth. He revealed impressive numbers, including 3 billion monthly active users (MAUs), with over 100M in the US alone. He also pointed out that messaging-first economies like Thailand and Vietnam rank among Meta’s top ten or eleven markets by revenue despite their lower global GDP positions.
In a clear signal of aggressive intent, Mark wants WhatsApp to become a storefront for businesses, staffed with an AI agent that manages communication directly within Meta’s platform, monetizes services, and handles social media channels.
Indeed, Meta is building a full-stack, AI-powered communication platform on top of WhatsApp, positioning it as the ultimate SMB DIY solution. The product vision is impressive and instructive. And for those still concerned about reach, consider this: The carriers didn’t even mention messaging, Alphabet sees RCS as part of a larger gameboard, but Meta views WhatsApp as the entire game. And yet, WhatsApp is at most 0.5% of its Q1 revenue.
Would you bet against Meta solving the reach issue? Especially considering it paid $16 billion to acquire WhatsApp, literally stealing it away from Google?
Finally
Could I be wrong? Of course. In fact, if I am, you’ll hear it here first. But the goal isn’t to get you to agree with my positions; it’s to spotlight the importance of shifting our perspective.
Too often, we become wrapped up in our operational grind and forget that even the big guys deserve empathy. Acknowledging this reality can help move the ball forward. In this world, where interoperability is crucial, Alphabet, Meta, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon own the platforms through which you must connect. Understanding their strategic focus for these platforms will clarify how you can advance your business.